Post by account_disabled on Jan 8, 2024 3:09:57 GMT -5
When Donald Trump was declared the winner in the presidential elections held across the pond in 2016, many were left in a state of shock . At the end of the day, the polls (which unfortunately do not know everything) made it almost certain that Hillary Clinton would manage to beat Trump at the polls. Shortly after, the Cambridge Analytica scandal emerged on the horizon and it was assumed that Trump's, for many, inexplicable victory took root in the dark goings-on perpetrated by this company on Facebook . However, time put everyone in their place and it seems that the triumph of the current tenant of the White House was not at the sole and exclusive expense of the schemes of Cambridge Analytica. If Trump became president (by surprise) of the United States of America back in 2016, it was largely because the polls failed absolutely miserably and were incapable of portraying (even with a broad brush) the country that in the ballot box voted for the then businessman , explains Santiago Campillo-Lundbeck in an article for Horizont . When conducting surveys, many forget that not all target audience groups are virtually identical in terms of reach and many voters keep the name of whom they vote for under lock and key (particularly if their candidate is clearly controversial as in the case of Trump).
It should also be taken into account that market research linked to electoral processes has the power in itself to change the vote of citizens called to the polls . As soon as the results of the polls are published, the Email Data behavior of voters also changes, as they review their voting strategies based on the opportunities of the candidates in the running. Marketing research is unfortunately not an exact science. Criticism against market research that takes place in the political arena is almost as old as this scientific branch . In 1949, the political scientist Lindsay Rogers already launched very harsh attacks against the methods of electoral polls in the book The Pollsters. From Rogers' point of view, it is virtually impossible to accurately measure public opinion, since it is not a constant but is permanently in motion. And the truth is that the criticisms formulated in his day by Rogers are today more relevant than ever in an era, the current one, in which Big Data seems to have sprouted a brilliant aura of sanctity. When we talk about Big Data or Smart Data these days , it seems that we are inferring that with the invaluable help of data we can make an accurate and permanent portrait of the world around us.
Nothing could be further, however, from reality. Data about past behavior and previous opinions are only good until the next event (and there will be one) turns everything upside down. The most paradigmatic and at the same time crude example of this reality is found in the year 2020, when a virus changed (perhaps forever) consumer behaviors and also the ways of doing things in hundreds of branches of activity. In market research applied to electoral processes, those involved in this scientific branch are confronted with the inevitable dilemma that observation can ultimately change the behavior of the observed subject (also in the era of Big Data and algorithms). intelligent). Trump relied excessively on data in the last election campaign Fortunately, Joe Biden 's electoral campaign was not based on blind faith in the Democratic candidate's polls . Biden never let his strategy be dictated by (inevitably misleading) market research. The man most obsessed with the polls in the last presidential elections held in the United States was actually Trump , perhaps accustomed to keeping an eye on the numbers since he became a star of the small screen years ago. This is probably why the Democratic candidate's actions proved to be so empty of content (and simultaneously reactive) in his last campaign.
It should also be taken into account that market research linked to electoral processes has the power in itself to change the vote of citizens called to the polls . As soon as the results of the polls are published, the Email Data behavior of voters also changes, as they review their voting strategies based on the opportunities of the candidates in the running. Marketing research is unfortunately not an exact science. Criticism against market research that takes place in the political arena is almost as old as this scientific branch . In 1949, the political scientist Lindsay Rogers already launched very harsh attacks against the methods of electoral polls in the book The Pollsters. From Rogers' point of view, it is virtually impossible to accurately measure public opinion, since it is not a constant but is permanently in motion. And the truth is that the criticisms formulated in his day by Rogers are today more relevant than ever in an era, the current one, in which Big Data seems to have sprouted a brilliant aura of sanctity. When we talk about Big Data or Smart Data these days , it seems that we are inferring that with the invaluable help of data we can make an accurate and permanent portrait of the world around us.
Nothing could be further, however, from reality. Data about past behavior and previous opinions are only good until the next event (and there will be one) turns everything upside down. The most paradigmatic and at the same time crude example of this reality is found in the year 2020, when a virus changed (perhaps forever) consumer behaviors and also the ways of doing things in hundreds of branches of activity. In market research applied to electoral processes, those involved in this scientific branch are confronted with the inevitable dilemma that observation can ultimately change the behavior of the observed subject (also in the era of Big Data and algorithms). intelligent). Trump relied excessively on data in the last election campaign Fortunately, Joe Biden 's electoral campaign was not based on blind faith in the Democratic candidate's polls . Biden never let his strategy be dictated by (inevitably misleading) market research. The man most obsessed with the polls in the last presidential elections held in the United States was actually Trump , perhaps accustomed to keeping an eye on the numbers since he became a star of the small screen years ago. This is probably why the Democratic candidate's actions proved to be so empty of content (and simultaneously reactive) in his last campaign.